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Low Expectations Ahead of Biden-Xi Meeting

White House officials are taking pains to lower expectations ahead of the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping Monday evening.

Both the US and the Chinese are referring to it as a “virtual meeting” rather than a summit as a way to temper hopes of a major breakthrough.

“This meeting is about our ongoing efforts to responsibly manage the competition, not about agreeing to a specific deliverable or outcome,” said a senior administration official in a briefing to reporters Sunday evening. Other White House officials have underscored this point in recent days.

There are certainly tough issues to hash out. The US sees China as its strategic competitor, with Beijing seeking to grow its military and economic influence around the world. The two have an array of diplomatic, legal, technological, and economic disputes that are volatile and prone to escalation. There have been over intellectual property and tariffs as well as regional flash points that could spiral into armed conflict, including in the Taiwan Strait, the South China and East China Seas.

Biden is expected to raise human rights issues, including Beijing’s use of forced labor in its supply chain. “We believe that these are differences that we need to address directly and not in some way put to the side as I think China would often like to do,” the official said in response to VOA’s question.

The official featuring the meeting as less about improving the bilateral relationship but more about a means to build “common sense guardrails to avoid miscalculation or misunderstanding” – in other words, to prevent the already tense rivalry from breaking into an all-out war.

“Our two countries are in a fundamentally different places with each other than we have been in the past,” said the official.

Many observers share the pessimism.

“This not the Sunnylands summit,” said Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, referring to the 2013 meeting between then President Barack Obama and Xi at a retreat center in California that placed the US-China bilateral relationship on more solid footing and paved the way for nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. “The relationship has changed, it’s more precarious, it’s more tense,” Cronin said.

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While both sides would like to avoid conflict, neither appears willing to back down on what it considers core values ​​and interests – and many of them are simply incompatible.

“There is no evidence that either leader has fundamentally reconsidered his interest, his goals, his strategy,” said Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. “So, the leaders are searching for some sort of formula that meets each other’s minimal goals that will allow them to try to manage this competition, rather than have it escalate to conflict.”

Washington and Beijing have secured a small positive step ahead of the meeting. At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland earlier this month, the world’s two biggest CO2 emitters unexpectedly announced they would work together to slash emissions and meet regularly to address the climate crisis.

domestic pressures

Both Biden and Xi face strong domestic pressures that push them toward a more contentious relationship. A Pew research poll shows 67% of Americans have “cold” feelings toward China on a “feeling thermometer,” rating the country less than 50 on a 0 to 100 scale. Only 46% said the same in 2018.

With inflation soaring, 70% of Americans say the economy is in bad shape and their approval for Biden’s overall job performance is down to 41% and his handling the economy is down to 39%, overall, according to a recent Washington Post – ABC News poll.

FILE- White House national economic director Brian Deese speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington. FILE- White House national economic director Brian Deese speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington.

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These numbers are ominous signs ahead of the Congressional midterm elections in 2022 where Biden and his Democratic party runs the risk of losing their majority in the Senate and House of Representatives.

“No matter what he does about China, the Republicans will try to brand him as soft on China and as an appeaser, and so he has to watch that,” Daly said.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping continues to consolidate power. Last week the Chinese Communist Party elevated Xi’s status to that of revered leader Mao Zedong and declared his leadership to be the “key to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” paving the way for him to remain in office for a third term and possibly longer.

FILE - A Chinese honor guard member walks past a poster of Chinese leader Xi Jinping near the entrance to the Forbidden City in Beijing, Sept.  18, 2021. FILE - A Chinese honor guard member walks past a poster of Chinese leader Xi Jinping near the entrance to the Forbidden City in Beijing, Sept.  18, 2021.

Chinese Leaders Issue Official History to Elevate Xi, Extend Rule

“Xi Jinping having just been anointed a living historical figure … he is not going back off and suddenly start making big concessions,” said Cronin.

A recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll found that 58% of Americans say that trade between the two nations does more to weaken US national security, a big from 33% who felt the same way in 2019

The same poll shows that 40% of Americans say China is economically stronger than the US, with most respondents favoring increasing tariffs on products imported from China and significantly reducing trade between the two countries.

FILE - A crew member leaps to fix a logo for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics before a launch ceremony to reveal the motto for the Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Beijing, Sept.  17, 2021. FILE – A crew member leaps to fix a logo for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics before a launch ceremony to reveal the motto for the Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Beijing, Sept. 17, 2021.

Olympics

Besides the myriad of tension points in the Biden-Xi virtual meeting, another thorny topic is the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

The White House has declined to comment on whether Biden would accept a personal invitation, which may be extended by Xi during their Monday meeting. Activists have called for a boycott of what they’ve labeled the “Genocide Games,” citing China’s human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other minorities.

The White House said Biden and Xi will be speaking via interpreters and the meeting is expected to last several hours.

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